The Hook

The first thing you need to know about Evan White is that he’s weird. Read a profile on him from college and you start to see certain phrases pop up: “I don’t know”; “eclectic”; “defies easy comparison”; “I just don’t know.” Some players illicit scouting reports gushing hyperbolic comparisons to Mantle, DiMaggio, or Mays. Evan White makes scouts sound like early 20th century farmers seeing their first Model T rumble down the road:

“Martha, what in the hell is that thing!??

It’s not just that he throws left-handed and hits right-handed, although that’s certainly a part of it. Incidentally, the reason he does this appears to be the same reason Evan White does a lot of things: He just sort of started doing it one day, and has done it ever since:

“Funny story. [Ed’s Note: funny story] When I first started picking up a little bat, I would always swing left-handed. I had an older cousin and he was a righty, probably like six or seven years older than me. He was a righty who had a right-handed golf club that my grandpa cut down for him to swing and use in the backyard. I picked that up and started swinging it… I don’t know if there’s an exact moment with that but I’ve always hit right-handed since then. ”

The bat/throw-handedness would already put White into a small bucket for comp purposes. Where things get truly off the grid, however, is his athleticism for his position. White is considered to be an exceptional athlete. Not an exceptional athlete at first base,  or for a baseball player. An exceptional athlete, full stop. That Baseball America profile posits he would be the best athlete “on several teams.” With practice he could almost certainly play outfield competently, and if he weren’t such a weird ass and threw with his right-hand the Mariners would actually have something other than a crushing, endless void of space to replace Kyle Seager at third.

But, he plays first base, home of failed catchers, DH’s stuck on pre-2020 National League rosters, and Dae-Ho Lee. Why does he do this? Because he just, like, always has. He was really good at something, and so no one ever told him to stop.

In a sport that has flattened down a lot of unique skillsets in an ever-rushing quest for Maximum Efficiency, White’s skillset stands alone in Major League Baseball. There’s no one else even remotely like him. He’s just a total weird ass.

I love him.

Alright hotshot. Defense, huh? How good can this kid’s defense actually be?

Uh

Well

It’s really damn good.

Only six games into his major league career, it’s clear that White is already one of the very best defenders at his position. You, I, scouts, twitter scouts, everyone could see this coming. It’s hard to imagine a better athlete coming up through modern baseball being allowed to spend their developmental time perfecting the position. Guys like White just don’t play first base full time. 

Why the hell not?

Think of it this way: Every positional player brings the totality of the debits and credits of his skillset to the three primary aspects of their side of the game: Offense, defense, baserunning. Every player will do this in slightly unique ways. Over the course of a 162-game season, a team that maximizes each of its players’ credits while limiting their debits will, generally speaking, do better than a team (with a similar talent level) that does not.

Evan White’s credits primarily belong to his glove, and at a position where offense-first players are typically “hidden” to take advantage of their bats. With White at first rather than a more defensively-oriented position the Mariners are robbing themselves of the opportunity to add one (1) potent bat to their lineup. 

It’s important when discussing this concept that when we hear someone brush aside White’s defense they aren’t doubting his skill. Literally no one does, because that would be incredibly stupid and there is no way you are that stupid. You’re very smart. Yes, you. Great work.

Rather, the concern is based on the value of that skill. Fangraphs’ DEF rating, which uses UZR as a baseline before adjusting for position, has given an overall positive value defensive rating to all of two first basemen since 2002. Putting White’s athleticism at first can feel a bit like taking a race car and using it to haul furniture. It can do it, but why not just use a truck? And even if he’s the best ever at that position, how much does that really help the team if he doesn’t hit? 

So, can he hit?

Well…………………………….kind of? Certainly better than I can! Almost certainly worse than your typical major league first baseman.*

*Non-Mariners Division

Per Jerry Dipoto, White’s offense saw a significant revision back in 2018, allowing him to generate more lift and improve his sweet, sweet launch angle. (For a more specific observation, Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen notes a longer stride as a contributing factor).

Now Jerry Dipoto likes to talk like a fish likes water. However, in addition to a noted increase in results-based numbers, I’ve been told that privately available minor-league swing data largely backs up his claim. Like his batted balls, White’s offensive profile has veered upward since the change.

Still, prior to this year White had 18 plate appearances above Double A. If Ron Washington was right, and playing first base is incredibly hard, then hitting major league pitching is trying to defeat Thanos with a bubble gun. While his legitimate power will allow him to thwock some mighty dongers, pitch recognition and plate discipline are going to be a work in progress for at least all of this year, and quite likely next year as well. 

It’s on White and the Mariners to prevent the inevitable struggles from consuming him, a la Mike Zunino, and rounding him into a league average offensive first basemen. And I would argue getting it to that level is a vital, perhaps even necessary factor in getting the Mariners to where they want to be. 

While his team-friendly contract and bonkers-good defense will almost certainly keep White from being a Mariners Black Hole of Suck(™), the fungibility of the position’s defense all but requires White turn into a plus bat. It’s worth noting that White’s best competition for Gold Gloves moving forward, Matt Olson, is sporting a sexy 130 career wRC+. If Evan White ever does that over a single season, it’s time to party.

Got a comp?

With all my usual “I am not a scout, don’t pretend to be one, and you shouldn’t care what I have to say” caveats, the player White has long reminded me of most is J.T. Snow. Snow rode a plus glove to a 14-year career, despite offense that largely vacillated between below-to-slightly-above average.

If things work out well, he could be a more athletic Sean Casey, or Doug Mientkeiwicz with pop. For a dream comp, White’s power develops, helping offset a lowish OBP and putting up seasons of 150 wRC+, the glove is everything you could ever want, and the Mariners get something akin to Keith Hernandez 2.0.

As always when comping prospects, you should note the median career outcome for White probably falls significantly lower than even the most modest MLB player I compare him to. Any prospect that carves out a major league career is a success, even if they do not fulfill all our hopes and dreams.

Anything else you want to add to this overly-long column, you old wind bag?

I think it’s very funny that White’s game is this:

via GIPHY

While a cursory glance at his quotes indicates he has a personality we Sunday School-raised folk call “sentient communion wafer,” I suppose it’s just part of what makes the ass so weird, and Evan White my favorite young Mariners player.