When J.P. Crawford was taken 16th overall in the 2013 MLB Draft by the Phillies, he was immediately a top, top prospect. Glovey shortstops with relatively high-ceiling bats are incredibly rare finds, and as anyone will tell you, the spine of your defense is the most important part of your fielding team. As such, trading for Crawford created plenty of warranted hype when Jerry Dipoto flipped an out-of-favor Jean Segura for his services. At the time he was acquired, J.P. had a total of nearly 200 PA for the Phillies, but his performance was mostly underwhelming, which led to his availability. Now, seven years after being drafted, Crawford is a full-time MLB shortstop; based on this season’s early results, he is thriving.

Drafted with the potential of four plus tools, Crawford was generally also thought to have the defensive skills to stick a shortstop. By all means, Crawford, now 25, showcases that ability, with flashes of plus-plus ability at the position. Defensively, he’ll always receive high marks, and if he can be more consistent with his arm accuracy, he has a chance to be a nightly highlight reel with his incredible range. What was always the question was whether he could hit at a level that would make him one of the premier players at his position in the game. Early returns in 2020 show that we just might be watching the evolution of one of MLB’s next great shortstops. So what has changed?

Quite simply, Crawford’s plate discipline has made leaps-and-bounds improvements since we last saw him in 2019. In his first ~80 PA of 2020, J.P. has increased his walk rate by about three percentage points and nearly halved his strikeout rate, as compared to last season. Crawford is currently working with an OBP around .400; paired with his defensive profile, that is always going to play. He’s seeing slightly more offspeed stuff this season, and responding well. He’s hitting more line drives, and hitting the ball up the middle nearly 20% more often than in 2019. If J.P. can hold his wRC+ around 125, we might be talking about a very special player for years to come.

Finding comps to his specific profile isn’t exactly easy, especially as most of today’s premier shortstops have pretty prolific power tools. This is the area where J.P. might fall short of reaching the top tier of shortstops in the Bigs. At 6’2” and a lanky 180 lbs, it is possible he puts on muscle and starts hitting 15-20 HR over a full season, but right now that seems like a far away dream. J.P.’s 2019 season would have resulted in something like 10 or 11 HR in a 600-PA season — and that was with the world’s juiciest baseballs. Getting closer to 20 dingers in a season is a reachable goal, but at 25 years old, a big gain in his power would be a little unusual at this point. It should also be noted that if Crawford never shows any consistent ability to drive the ball, his walks could fall off as pitchers pound the zone on him, anticipating relatively weak contact. His hit-for-average tool will be put to the test if he doesn’t add some pop.

So, what does a slap-hitting, high-OBP guy with good defense at shortstop look like over a full season? There’s no doubt that you could pencil in Crawford, keeping his positive defensive ratings and a wRC+ of 125, at somewhere around 3.5 fWAR over a full season. The most recent season I can find similar to Crawford’s current game is 2018 Ben Zobrist who hit .305/.378/.440 over a full season, while maintaining a wRC+ of 123 and hitting nine bombs. Zobrist paced ~4 fWAR/600 in 2018. So far in 2020, Crawford is pacing something near 5 fWAR/600. This doesn’t seem too far-fetched, and would represent a huge win for the Seattle Mariners. If Crawford can maintain his plate discipline, and even add a little power, we might just have ourselves a stew going.