Whole-assed analysis

Evan White and the Sample of Small Sizes

The moment Evan White signed his six-year, $24 million deal, he immediately became a talking point for the future of the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners, by locking up White for the next six years, indicated he was the first baseman of the future. White, by signing the deal despite a total of 18 career plate appearances at the AAA level, indicated he personally was ready to showcase why he is worth the money.

The weird-ass 2020 season is going to most likely close soon for the Mariners without a trip to the playoffs. This, in itself, should not be surprising. Even with the expanded playoff scenario, the Mariners are in full rebuild mode. Making the playoffs would be an unexpected benefit of the year, not an actual expectation.

For Evan White, his weird-ass rookie season is one to put behind him. He has no other reason but to do so, considering the Mariners are on the hook for five more years of production, of which White did little. The loyal Evan White defenders will note that his defense is excellent and the sample size is small. The legions of Evan White haters will point to his astronomical strikeout rate and a Mariners organization that specializes in producing AAA+ players.

Both sides are correct. Trying to draw concrete conclusions out of this stupid season is an exercise in futility. Any chance for White to start the season in AAA and prove he was ready went down the tube that is the 2020 vortex of hopelessness. At this point, it is only fair to give him the benefit of the doubt here. Yes, the sample size is small, and White did not have the normal opportunity afforded most young players in pacing his development.

The sample size isn’t small enough, however, to immediately discount what is going on. White’s 40.4 K% is the second-worst in the league. He is on pace for a historic strikeout-riddled season in a normal year. His 67 wRC+ is tied for eighth-worst in the entire league. Sure, he hits the ball hard, but that doesn’t matter at all if the end result consistently is an out. It looks like the Mariners don’t have the first baseman of the future. Rather, it appears they have Mark Reynolds or Chris Davis–not exactly the best building block.

One year does not make a trend, of course. White showed throughout the minors that he was constantly ready for the next level. Hence, why Dipoto felt the need to throw more than a few of the rebuild eggs into the basket, telling Ryan Divish the following:

“This is a moment we’re all really excited for. To move forward with Evan White at the core having just signed a contract for a minimum of six years, but what could be nine, for what we expect to be nine, is really groundbreaking.”

Evan White’s year was like going to Costco and trying to eat a full meal without hitting up the $1.50 hot dog. You get a lot of nibbles, some pretty tasty, others you want to forget. Combined, all of the tiny bites do not equate to an actual meal and it leaves you wanting quite a bit more.

Categories: Whole-assed analysis

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