When the Seattle Mariners signed Nelson Cruz in 2015, we all agreed it was a year too late. Two years later, that sentiment seemed incredibly dumb. Now, in even further retrospect, it might be correct, as the 2014 team with Nellie would have probably been a playoff squad, but that’s beyond the point. Nelson Cruz is extremely strong. He also needs to spend one more year in northwest green and navy to be considered for the Seattle Mariners Hall of Fame. Lately, Jerry Dipoto has been quoted as saying that Seattle will be competing for the playoffs next season. That’s great! The Mariners should sign Nelson Cruz, and here’s why.
First of all, the Mariners have almost no money committed to their 2021 roster. If things stayed as they are at the point of publishing this, they have a meager $70M committed to 2021, with a large gap between themselves and the majority of top-tier MLB rosters. Despite being “close” to making an expanded playoffs in 2020, the M’s were a bottom-five team in total pitching fWAR and a bottom-ten team in total offensive fWAR. It’s yet to be seen if the MLB will keep it’s expanded playoffs, but Rob Manfred apparently wants to. That is terrible, and deserves to be discussed in a different article, but it certainly helps teams like the Mariners become more competitive year-over-year without having to be much better than average. Seattle has more than enough room to add a guy like Nellie, and a proven bat is likely what this squad will need more than a few of.
The biggest question with Cruz is, of course, about his age. He turned 40 this year, but that didn’t slow him down. His 2020 numbers would’ve been worth 6 fWAR in a 600-PA season. That’s massive from the DH spot. He’s been remarkably reliable at providing 3-4 fWAR in his recent full seasons, and the M’s don’t really seem to have a surefire DH going into 2021. Much will be made of Haniger needing DH time to get back into MLB shape, and Ty France is here, too. But neither of those players is a reliable MLB producer at this point, and they both have positions they could take in the field. Personally, I think the most competitive 2021 roster sees France moving to first base so Evan White can find his groove down in AAA. That would leave a gaping hole at DH.
Cruz signed his last contract at the beginning of 2019: a one-year, $14.3M deal with a $12M club option for 2020. I’d expect, now past 40, that he isn’t going to receive a guaranteed contract above $15M, despite being worth a lot more than that in recent years. Cruz is likely to be worth the value of that contract in a single year, and maybe you have to add a mutual option to get him back to Seattle. I doubt he’ll be signing anywhere for more than three years, with a probable cliff coming sometime in the future.
Hitting after 40 is an extremely rare trait, and one that doesn’t last forever. Nellie might be about to sign his final contract, and the Mariners are certainly in a place to take a “gamble” on what could prove to be quite the bargain. Seattle has certainly spent money in much worse places than on a short, cheap contract for an elite power bat. Even if the cliff comes sometime in 2021, you definitely aren’t hamstringing the future window by getting Cruz on a similar contract to the one he just completed. He’s a known clubhouse guy coming to a team with little MLB experience to tout. It’s a no-brainer. The Seattle Mariners should sign Nelson Cruz.
