A thorough studying of baseball history tells us that baseball prospects are impossibly difficult to predict.

There are enough cases of can’t miss prospects busting and so-so prospects hitting it big that the topic is really best served in a wait-and-see approach for baseball fans, but at the end of the day, that isn’t really what being a baseball fan is about. Baseball fans dream, sometimes on the hopes of an approaching season and sometimes on the ceilings of developing minor leaguers. It is very much the latter for Seattle Mariners fans, as they cast their eyes to the horizon and await the arrival of several exciting prospects. Amongst the growing list of names, two in particular stand out: outfielders Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez. 

A scan of any top prospect list from any baseball think tank will find their names fairly quickly. Kelenic and Rodriguez are considered to be two of the very best prospects alive, and for good reason. Kelenic, a sweet-swinging lefty with endless tools, bashed his way through three separate levels in 2019, culminating in a surprising 21-game stretch in Double-A Arkansas that saw him slash .253/.315/.542. Rodriguez, a hulking right-handed slugger, cruised through Class-A ball before managing a hilarious slash line of .462/.514/.738 in High-A Modesto at the age of eighteen (18!).

In any conversation about the Mariners’ future, the two are peas and carrots; peanut butter and jelly; orange leaves and pumpkin lattes. The mention of one is sure to quickly be followed by the mention of the other, be it from a fan in a coffee shop or the Mariners themselves. Naturally, as we find ourselves in a landscape that has allowed more free time than ever, people have started to ask the inevitable: 

Who would you rather have? 

The ‘who is better’ and ‘would you rather’ questions are common in sports, and often lack a clear, agreeable answer. Surely with prospects being as unpredictable as they are, there is no possible way to come to a conclusion, right? How do we decide between the athletic, do-it-all Kelenic and the 18-year-old that is already reducing baseballs to ashes? 

Well…

In this simulation, I’ve created a team of 25 Jarred Kelenics (TEAM JARRED) to take on a team of 25 Julio Rodriguezes (TEAM JULIO). The teams will then play a seven-game series to decide who is the ultimate Mariner prospect, with absolutely zero room for debate. I, as a Mariner fan, will respect the decision of this simulation, and will move forward believing the results to be canon. 

THE RULES:

• There will be no guest pitchers in this series. Do you want to be known as the ultimate Mariner prospect? Well guess what, you’re going to have to prove it in the field, at the plate, and on the mound. This is not a competition for the weak. 
  • Kelenic and Rodriguez will both be made awful pitchers. If anyone forwards me anything discussing their pitching prowess at a younger age, I will print out said report and throw it in the trash.
• The first few games will take place in classic ballparks (Polo Grounds, Shibe Park, etc…). Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it, therefore we must take Kelenic and Rodriguez to baseball fields where players were worshipped for being able to hit 85 mph fastballs. 
• All elimination games will take place at T-Mobile Park. The winner deserves to celebrate in front of their new fans, while the loser deserves to watch. 
• Games will be six innings. I am absolutely not going to watch Kelenic and Rodriguez pitch for nine innings every single game. I can barely stomach the actual Mariners rotation most of the time. 
• The game automatically converted Kelenic to a right-hander when he catches, so I don’t want to hear any yelling about poor attention to detail. On that same note, only one Kelenic and only one Julio Rodriguez will have their real uniform number. They will be considered the captain of the team. No, this does not have any effect on gameplay, but I’ve been creating video game storylines in my head since I was a child, so why stop now. 
• The two will alternate home-and-away throughout, with a random coin toss deciding who gets home field advantage. 
• Kelenic will be representing the Seattle Mariners during this event. Julio Rodriguez will be representing the Tacoma Rainiers. I figured people would yell at me if I made Julio a Chicago Cub or something. 

I think these are all of the rules. Let’s dance. 

LOCATION: Polo Grounds (New York, NY)

Pitching Matchup: Julio J. Rodriguez (0-0, 0.00) vs Jarred J. Kelenic (0-0, 0.00)

I made several test runs when creating these rosters, complete with small tinkerings and drastic overhauls. So, as you can imagine, I was a bit confident heading into Game 1 that I had created two teams that were prepared to hand me thrilling contest after thrilling contest. 

Boy, did I look dumb early on. 

Team Jarred came into the game feeling cocky as all heck, to the point where we even got a small dance routine from the Jarreds in the dugout prior to first pitch. 

Team Jarred continued the good vibes after Jarred A. Kelenic reached base on an error to lead things off. When a wild pitch scooted him over to second, the dancing was practically deafening. 

And yet, somehow, Julio J. Rodriguez worked around these opening miscues, recording a groundout and a flyout before miraculously striking out Jarred D. Kelenic.

The bottom of the first was equally uneventful. The broadcasters gave some thoughts on Jarred J. Kelenic’s three-pitch mix and mentioned that he would need all three pitches to work that evening if he expected to keep Team Julio in check. Kelenic issued a leadoff walk to Julio A. Rodriguez and a single to Julio C. Rodriguez, but a clutch double play prevented any damage:

It was at this point in the simulation where I nearly exited the game in order to tinker with pitcher ratings. Kelenic and Rodriguez should NOT be tossing scoreless innings, much less matching scoreless innings. I wanted bombs and gappers, but instead I saw goose eggs. When Julio J. Rodriguez proceeded to work out of a bases-loaded, one-out jam with a strikeout and a pop-up, I was downright furious. 

But then, things began to happen.

In the bottom of the second, the Seattle Mariners Megabowl got its first run, thanks to an RBI single from Julio G. Rodriguez:

Unfortunately for Jarred J. Kelenic, this seemed to open a floodgate and send his confidence into a bottomless pit. The very next batter, Julio H. Rodriguez, put a ball into the seats. The next inning, Julio E. Rodriguez hit a grand slam. Jarred O. Kelenic and Jarred P. Kelenic entered in relief. Both were equally terrible. By the time the dust settled, Team Julio had an 11-0 lead with just two innings to go. 

Team Jarred finally managed a couple of runs in the 5th, with Jarred D. Kelenic launching a bomb out to right field, but it was too little, too late. 

Game 1 went to Team Julio in a landslide. 

W: Julio J. Rodriguez

L: Jarred J. Kelenic

LOCATION: Shibe Park (Philadelphia, PA)

Pitching Matchup: Julio K. Rodriguez (0-0) vs Jarred K. Kelenic (0-0)

Series: TEAM JULIO leads, 1-0

Things got wild immediately in Game 2. 
IMMEDIATELY.

Just minutes after opening performer Puddle of Mudd belted out a pregame concert for a packed house, Julio A. Rodriguez busted out a disgusting bat flip:

The two would then exchange blows for the remainder of the game. Team Jarred answered the solo shot with one of their own. When Team Julio made it 2-1 in the second, Team Jarred made it 2-2 in the 3rd. When Kelenic scored two more, Julio scored four. 

Which led us to arguably my favorite moment in the whole series. Down 6-4 with the bases loaded and two outs, Jarred A. Kelenic stepped up to the plate. The crowd was LOUD: they were either about to witness a miracle pitch or a miracle swing, with no other outcome possible. This was Philly, the town of perpetual sports disappointment, and they were ready to see the birth of a hero. 

Comfortably ahead in a 1-2 count and 6-4 lead, Julio rocked and fired. Kelenic made contact, but the ball did nothing more than roll harmlessly to the shortstop. Rodriguez sighed, for the difficult situation was about to pass. Julio C. Rodriguez gathered the rolling baseball, looked to second, paused, fired to first, and sent a dying bird straight into the dirt. The ball took an unfortunate hop, as the ball tends to do, and bounced far enough away to allow two whole Kelenics to make it home on the play. 

The score was 6-6. Extras were coming.

After pulling ahead by a run in the 7th, Rodriguez found himself once again in a save situation. With a runner on first and two outs, Rodriguez lobbed the most perfectly painted fastball imaginable:

W: Julio Q. Rodriguez

L: Jarred R. Kelenic

SV: Julio R. Rodriguez 

LOCATION: Forbes Field (Pittsburgh, PA)

Pitching Matchup: Julio L. Rodriguez vs Jarred L. Kelenic

Series: TEAM JULIO leads, 2-0

Jarred L. Kelenic never particularly liked the rain. It’s wet, smooth, and it gets everywhere. And so, with his team trailing 2-0 in the Seattle Mariner MegaBowl, he found it appropriate that the blue skies of the past two days made way for the dark clouds as he headed to the ballpark. 

Don’t rain. Don’t rain. Don’t rain. 

“Looks like it’s gonna pour today,” said his uber driver, a thin, bearded white man in an oversized rain jacket. 

“Yeah, I suppose,” said Jarred, gazing at his crumpled up Columbia coat in his open backpack. 

“Say, that big ballgame is going on downtown today. People in the city haven’t shut up about it. You gonna go?” 

“Maybe.” 

“Well MAYBE you should go! A ballgame is a great way to experience the city,” the driver said, shooting an enthusiastic grin into the rearview mirror. 

“Kinda cruddy weather, don’t you think?”

“Nah, I love the rain.”

“You do?”

“Yeah, when I was a kid, my grandpa used to tell me this story about the time he met my grandma.”

Jarred wasn’t interested in the uber driver’s story. He had a game and endless scouting reports to think about, but the driver was in too deep to take a moment to notice Jarred’s deep sigh in the mirror. 

“It was the state fair and my grandpa was trying to walk home when the rain started. And when I say rain I mean RAIN. Buckets are getting chucked onto my grandpa and he’s pretty sure he’s either gonna get hit by a car while crossing the street or just catch a cold and die.”

“That seems pretty bleak.”

“He was a bleak person. Anyway, he’s walking by this group of guys from his high school, all of ‘em these egghead jocks who liked to roam the city and start crap. If you walked by them, they were gonna laugh at you about SOMETHIN’, ya know? I’m talking old classic movie bullies. Anyway, my grandpa, he tries to walk by them without them noticing him, steps in a pothole that was covered by all the rain piling up and—”

“You mean a puddle?”

“Yeah, a puddle. He steps in the puddle and falls down. These guys start going ballistic with laughter and everything, start calling him names and all that. My grandpa is ready to curl up in the puddle and disappear, and then suddenly, he hears a lady screaming at the guys. Stands up and sees a woman wagging a finger at them, I mean just REALLY digging into them. The guys kinda disperse without even acknowledging my grandpa again. The lady walks over and helps him up and they introduce themselves.”

“Your grandma?”

“My grandma. Five years later they were married. Kinda wild stuff. I don’t know, my grandpa always told it a lot better than me, but whatever.”

“How often do you tell that story?”

“Whenever it rains!”

“Ah. Well I–”

“The rain, man. It creates opportunities that the sun never could. What if it’s sunny that day? Am I here right now? Are you here? Who the hell knows. I’m glad it rains, man. After my grandma died, my grandpa always said the rain was her saying hello.”

The car pulls up to a coffee shop a block from the ballpark. Jarred thanks the driver and exits the car. 

The story was bad, he thinks, but at least some people like the rain. 

By the time he takes the mound, it is pouring, so much so that he’s sure the game is seconds from being called. It isn’t called, though. When Jarred throws a scoreless second, the game continues on. When Jarred throws a scoreless third, the game continues. When Jarred works a scoreless fifth, the umps talk for a moment, but decide to finish what was started. When Jarred finishes a complete game masterpiece, the rain, as if by magic, eases. 

As he’s walking off the field, Julio A. Rodriguez gives him a nod and mutters well wishes. “Couldn’t square anything up,” he says. “Damn rain.” 

W: Jarred L. Kelenic

L: Julio S. Rodriguez 

LOCATION: Griffith Stadium (Washington, D.C.)

Pitching matchup: Julio M. Rodriguez (0-0) vs Jarred M. Kelenic (0-0)

Series: TEAM JULIO leads, 2-1

Here’s the thing about Julio Rodriguez: he is very good at hitting 85 mph fastballs and rain can’t last forever. When TEAM JARRED showed up to Griffith Stadium for Game 4, they hadn’t even settled into their dugout before Julio mashed his first two home runs of the day. 

For TEAM JULIO, this was the kind of game everyone expected. They tallied four home runs, including a 450-foot missile. At one point, Jarred M. Kelenic took a line drive off of his leg and had to leave the game. It was raw, it was real, and it was a fantastic reminder of just how good Rodriguez could be if he hits his ceiling and also gets to face mediocre lefties every single game.

Win: Julio M. Rodriguez

Loss: Jarred M. Kelenic

Location: T-Mobile Park (Seattle, WA)

Pitching Matchup: Julio N. Rodriguez (0-0) vs Jarred N. Kelenic (0-0)

Series: TEAM JULIO leads, 3-1

I honestly don’t have the ability to really describe this game. I am a mediocre writer and Game 5 deserves a recap from someone far more talented than me. I am going to undersell it, but believe me when I say I leapt up from my couch while watching a DANGED CPU VS CPU BASEBALL VIDEO GAME.

Facing elimination, Team Kelenic came alive in this one, scoring two in the first, two in the third, and three in the fourth. On the mound, Jarred N. Kelenic was a force, working out of a bases loaded, no out jam in the 1st before putting the car into cruise control. For five innings, Team Kelenic was a death machine, swallowing everything in their path. When they entered the sixth and final inning with a 7-0 lead, they were already preparing mentally for Game 6. There would be at least one more battle at T-Mobile Park. There would be at least one more night of baseball.

Jarred T. Kelenic came on to finish the game in relief, figuring he’d get dinged around a little, but the cushion would hold. And then:

JULIO RODRIGEUZ singles to left.

JULIO RODRIGUEZ singles to left.

JULIO RODRIGUEZ homers to right. (7-3)

JULIO RODRIGUEZ singles to center. 

JULIO RODRIGUEZ doubles to left (7-4)

JULIO RODRIGUEZ strikes out looking.

JULIO RODRIGUEZ flies out to left.

JULIO RODRIGUEZ walks. 

JULIO RODRIGUEZ DOES THIS:

It was pure insanity, all of which left Team Jarred scrambling to find a fire extinguisher:

Blowing a 7-0 lead in the final inning SHOULD bury a team, but Team Jarred is not your normal team. In the top of the seventh, Team Jarred turned to Jarred E. Kelenic, who proceeded to do this:

One clean inning of relief later, Team Jarred had forced a Game 6. 

Madness.

Win: Jarred S. Kelenic

Loss: Julio R. Rodriguez

Location: T-Mobile Park (Seattle, WA) 

Pitching Matchup: Julio J. Rodriguez (1-0) vs Jarred L. Kelenic (1-0)

Series: TEAM JULIO leads, 3-2

With elimination staring them in the face, Team Jarred turned to Jarred L. Kelenic, who twirled a gem in Pittsburgh in Game 3. Team Julio, meanwhile, sent their ace, Julio J. Rodriguez, to the mound to finish the series off. The pitching matchup was buzzed about all day long. Fans swarmed T-Mobile in an attempt to catch a glimpse of the future. For the second-consecutive day, the Seattle Mariner MegaBowl trophy was rolled out for everyone to see. Perhaps this would be the day someone would claim it.

Team Julio came out swinging, clearing the fence with a two-run dinger in the first and again on a solo shot in the second. Things were bleak, which made it all the more miraculous when Jarred A. Kelenic blasted a game-tying, three-run home run over the right field wall in the bottom of the second. 

From there, Jarred L. Kelenic settled in, tossing a scoreless third, followed by a scoreless fourth, followed by a scoreless fifth. By the time the final inning arrived, chip damage had Team Jarred leading, 5-3. Team Julio, somewhat in shock, contemplated the reality of blowing a 3-1 series lead:

Jarred L. Kelenic confidently handed the ball off to the bullpen, yelling “go get us a Game 7, Jarred!” as Jarred T. Kelenic came in for the save. But here’s the thing about Team Julio: he is really good at hitting slow fastballs and the rain can’t last forever. 

I took this screenshot after he hit three homers, figuring he’d never top it, and then hopped into the simulator to get to the next half inning. He proceeded to homer AGAIN (a two-run shot) before the inning ended. Again, the bullpen had ruined a game for Team Jarred, and again, Team Julio was the Never Say Die Squad. 

Team Jarred had battled so hard in this series, but the four-run deficit and the demand that they rally from behind AGAIN proved to be too much. Jarred B. Kelenic added a two-run homer in the bottom of the sixth, but that was all they could muster. 

The game was over. Team Julio, in celebration, all said they’d be going to Disneyland once a coronavirus vaccine had been mass produced. During the trophy presentation, series MVP Julio D. Rodriguez grabbed the microphone and yelled “SEATTLE, THIS WAS JUST A PREVIEW, BABY.” Jerry Dipoto wept the entire time. 

Win: Julio R. Rodriguez

Loss: Jarred T. Kelenic

Save: Julio O. Rodriguez 

In this crazy world, all we have is science, and I’m not sure how you can get much more scientific than this. Julio Rodriguez is the Mariners’ best prospect. Give me 25 Julios over 25 Jarreds any day of the week. Don’t agree with me? I don’t care, because science is on my side. 

Goms.