This will be a quick and simple post. I don’t have much time and with games set to start in a week the topic is soon to be dead and buried (if it isn’t already). I’m going to start by leading off with the tweet that inspired this post:

There has been a lot of conversation this winter about the Mariners’ offseason, their payroll, and how/what/if fans should feel about it. Why care about how much a team spends? Talent is talent right? The team added last year’s Cy Young Award Winner and traded for three All-Stars! Why concern ourselves with how much those players are getting paid?

The short answer; the one that eschews things like ethics, philosophies of labor vs. management, collective bargaining, and moral imperatives, is that teams that spend more simply win more as a general rule. Look at that spending chart up above again. Checking Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections here are some #justthefacts:

Top 10 payroll average projected win total: 91.7

Lowest projected win total among the top 10: 86.2 (Boston (lol))

Middle 10 payroll average win total: 77.5

Highest projected win total among the middle 10: 93.0 (Milwaukee)

Bottom 10 payroll average projected win total: 73.8

Highest projected win total among the bottom 10: 85.3 (Tampa Bay)

You can (and Lord knows we all have) argue about things like win curves, timing, opportunity costs, farm systems and everything else but the one thing this data makes absolutely clear is that spending more generally leads to more winning. When the highest projected win total of a bottom 10 payroll is more than six wins below the average total of the top 10 I don’t know how anyone can try to say otherwise (although I remain confident in some of you gamely making the attempt).

It’s fair to point out that projections are simply projections. The Rays won the AL East last year and made the World Series in 2020. The Giants somehow beat the Dodgers for the NL West. There is certainly a scenario where the 2022 Seattle Mariners beat their projections, win the AL West, and send this region into baseball ecstasy. However, in an offseason that saw so many truly great players sign elsewhere, the team with the longest playoff drought in major American sports is attempting to succeed through a narrow, precipitous path.

Whereas other teams are playing bump and run to a wide open green, the Mariners are telling their friends to turn on the camera as they attempt a backwards flop shot. Their reasons for doing so from a competitive standpoint appear to be summed up loosely as “it would be sick, bro”. It certainly be. But if the roster blades the iron, blasts through a nearby window, and misses the playoffs for the 21st consecutive season, it’s going to be fair to ask why they insisted on making it so difficult on themselves.

Go M’s.