Yesterday, MLB Pipeline released a brand-spanking new top-100 prospect list, complete with deeper looks into several individual categories. It’s well worth your time, and you can find the list by clicking here (or HERE).
Most importantly, the endless list of names features five whole Seattle Mariners. Five! There’s even a brand new, never-before-seen name floated out amongst the bunch! Here is a breakdown:
(NOTE: I’ll be primarily comparing prospects’ 2020 spot to their place in the 2019 list. I feel like a year is a much more substantial offering to go off of than a few months)
No. 12 – Jarred Kelenic – OF
60 hit – 55 power – 60 run – 55 field – 60 arm – 60 overall
The No. 13 ranked prospect on the 2019 list, Kelenic has held firm as one of the better prospects in all of baseball. This isn’t shocking, he’s a well-rounded prospect who lacks any real weakness. Combine that with a strong 2019 (.291/.364/.540 across A/A+/AA) and a stronger hype campaign, and you’re really looking at someone who was far more likely to move higher on the list than lower. With multiple top-ten prospects cracking MLB rosters this year, Kelenic seems like a pretty strong bet to crack the top-ten in the 2021 rankings.
No. 19 – Julio Rodriguez – OF
55 hit – 60 power – 45 run – 55 field – 60 arm – 60 overall
Rodriguez received only a minor bump over the last year, jumping from No. 25 to No. 19. This isn’t a knock on Rodriguez or MLB Pipeline; there really isn’t a ton of room to move when you’re inside the top-25 and the league is filled to the brim with elite prospects. Rodriguez taking those next steps forward on the list will come down to two primary things (for me, at least):
- Stay healthy! You can’t really blame Rodriguez for a fastball to the hand costing him a couple months of games in 2019, but ultimately staying on the field is king in rising up the ranks.
- Handle Double-A competition. It’s hard to say for certain when exactly the jump from High-A to Double-A will be for Rodriguez, but that’s really the first significant leap in competition level you’ll see for better prospects. If the 19-year-old handles the pitcher-friendly environment, I think you’ll see another decent leap.
No. 39 – Emerson Hancock – RHP
65 fastball – 55 curveball – 60 slider – 60 changeup – 55 control – 55 overall
The Mariners’ 2020 first-round draft pick makes his top-100 debut, and for good reason. It’s been a few years since the Mariners have had a pitching prospect with as high of a ceiling as Hancock. He has all the makings of a legitimate ace: the explosive fastball, the plus secondary stuff, and strong enough command of all of his offerings. His development will be crucial to the Mariners’ rebuilding plans, as the current rotation is mostly an empty cupboard when it comes to high ceilings.
If Hancock has a strong start to 2021, I could see him shooting up the top-100 list fairly quickly.
No. 44 – Logan Gilbert – RHP
65 fastball – 55 slider – 50 curveball – 55 changeup – 55 control – 55 overall
On a quick note, I find it humorous how the Mariners’ dynamic outfield duo (12 and 19) and dynamic pitching duo (39 and 44) are grouped so tightly within this list. I’m sure it’s not intentional, I just wanted to throw this take out there.
Gilbert is fun to watch. He was fun at Stetson and he was fun at every single stop across three levels in 2019. There’s something thrilling about watching a 6’6 dude step on the mound and pound the zone with relentless offerings, and I really can’t wait to see it happen in T-Mobile.
Will Gilbert move much more on this list in the next year? Probably not. He’s already fairly close to arriving in Seattle’s rotation, and any needle-moving alterations–be it to his mechanics or pitches–will likely follow his arrival. That being said, I think he has legitimate No. 2/3 potential, which, like I mentioned above, is something the current rotation is greatly in need of.
No. 62 – Evan White – 1B
55 hit – 50 power – 60 run – 55 arm – 70 field – 55 overall
White actually moved down a pinch over the last year, dropping from No. 58 on the 2019 list to No. 62 on the 2020 list. No, you don’t need to alert authorities; this is the result of a wave of new prospects arriving in the draft and the fact that first basemen don’t typically move much on these lists unless they swing an elite bat. Do not spiral into a pit of anger.
I’m not entirely sure what else there is to say about White; his arrival in Seattle has already spawned countless discussions and debates. The glove is excellent. If you’ve ever wondered how entertaining it would be if you put a great athlete in a position that only really requires them to be an average athlete, you have your answer here. It’s the positional equivalent of watching Peyton Manning play football with a group of toddlers on the SNL skit.
Where the questions begin to pop up, of course, is at the plate. Hitting is the hardest thing prospects will have to do and, unlike a more defensive-minded position like shortstop, it’s hard to justify trotting out a poor-hitting first baseman. “Will he hit” is perhaps the most important question to answer for every position player, but it’s especially crucial for first basemen.
Please go out tonight and crush a couple dingers, Evan. We’re rooting for you.
- The Mariners came in third in terms of ‘prospect points’ (329). The only teams with higher point totals were the Detroit Tigers (380) and San Diego Padres (339).
- Evan White was tied with Christian Pache for the best field-tool (70). No, we don’t need to redefine everything we know about defensive metrics, but White is already an unquestionably great defensive first baseman.
- The Mariners were one of four teams to land five prospects on the list. Two teams (Marlins; Padres) landed six on the list.
- I’m guessing INF Noelvi Marte and RHP George Kirby didn’t miss the list by much. I’m not as high on Kirby as most, but I’m just one dude and he’s always seemed to get some love from MLB Pipeline.
- You can find the new Mariners Top-30 prospect list here. My only significant beef is Kyle Lewis coming in right below Jake Fraley. The rest is fine.
