In the wake of what may have contextually been the most disappointing season in the history of what is assuredly the most disappointing franchise in Major League Baseball, it was clear the Mariners were going to adjust. You do not go from the braggadocious, confident organization that was half-trolling its own fanbase saying they were going to “Win It All” on Opening Day 2023 to getting leap-frogged by the division rival fans and media specifically lauded you for not being without tightening some screws and oiling a few gears.

What the Mariners have done – at the time of this writing before noon on December 3rd, 2023 – is pivot massively away from any player that offers any combination of above average cost without above average production. Eugenio Suarez is gone. Teoscar Hernandez was not given a qualifying offer. Marco Gonzales, the longest-tenured active Mariner and the key face of one of the innumerable “Cores” assembled by the Dipoto Regime over the years, is gone. FromerEvan White is gone. Jarred Kelenic, arguably the singular talent most used to justify the current era of Mariners’ baseball, is gone. In their place the Mariners have acquired bounceback candidate Luis Urias, a hodgepodge of intriguing arms, and the most fetishized resource of the Dipoto Era: “Payroll Flexibility.” 

Amazingly the Mariners are not tinkering but rather once again casting massive swaths of their major league roster to the wind with the vague promise that that same wind will blow them to more successful waters, the team is asking fans for trust. Headed into an offseason with a roster clearly in need of a minimum of 2-3 additional good players, the Mariners have started it off by instead subtracting 2-3 good players. It is early, and final judgment will be rendered much later, but a daunting shopping list has already doubled in size. It is an immensely difficult task ahead of them.

It’s not fair to call what Seattle has done thus far another rebuild. In George Kirby, Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Logan Gilbert, J.P. Crawford, and Luis Castillo there is too much established star-level talent, and too much young star-level talent, in place to term what is happening as a reset of the contention clock a la 2018. Barring any further sell off the 2024 Mariners will almost certainly not be bad. What this offseason makes as clear as possible is how narrow the Mariners’ path to winning a World Series truly is. 

Any additions requiring taking on significant payroll (and it is becoming increasingly worrying how low the threshold may be with this ownership group to term payroll “significant”) necessitates a corresponding offset of current payroll. Without a farm yet capable of regularly graduating major league regulars Seattle is at risk of becoming a snake eating its own tail, any upgrades demanding the front office extract more value from the payroll coming in than they are losing from payroll going out. With more than eight years’ track record to observe it is simply factual to state their ability to do that is in question.

A special note should be made at this point regarding Mariner ownership. It seems reasonably clear, despite whatever middling opinion I have of this front office, that the financial resources available to them have not been what they were led to believe. As MLB struggles with the long-looming fallout of the RSN bubble bursting, and the Mariners specifically deal with the financial drain of Xfinity’s decision to remove ROOT Sports from its basic package offering, it’s probably simply a fact that the Mariners are going to bring in less revenue in 2024 than they have in previous seasons. 

I want to be very, very clear here: I do not care about that, and don’t believe anyone really should. That a dozen or so uber-rich people’s plan to carefully curate a wildly appreciating asset to function as a bottomless ATM of sorts running into the slightest friction for the first time in a decade is onerous enough that Mariner employees, players, and fans should accept anything less than exactly the kinds of spending and serious World Series contention that was promised for years is laughable. The Mariners and their owners make plenty of money. They have plenty of money. If that is not enough money for them the issue lies with them and exactly nobody else. There is no quarter, empathy, or understanding for the mega-rich equating “less” with poverty.

What the Dipoto Era of Mariners Baseball has excelled at more than anything is its ability to publicly sell the idea of change being good, simply because it’s change. The past has not been what we’ve wanted, so if the future is different than the past, it can’t be all bad can it? A receptive, patient, and undyingly loyal fanbase has accepted multiple reimaginings, stepbacks, and restarts. From the mood of both players and fans after last season – in no small part thanks to Dipoto’s unfathomably arrogant self-inflicted wounds – it appears that one singular strength has waned. Goodwill has burned off like a failed rocket re-entering atmosphere. There is nothing shielding Mariners ownership from the white-hot fury of their fans besides the beauty of baseball as a sport and a few Funko Pops for players who may or may not be here by Opening Day.

It will get better, because it has to. The Mariners are going to add talent to fill the voids they’ve created. The talent will be somewhere between slightly less and slightly more than what has departed, as will the payroll. The projected win total will be somewhere between 83-87 games. It will be hailed as a bold new direction, the long-promised era of Mariner dominance finally cresting the horizon. The only team in baseball to never make a World Series is finally going to make it all worth it. Just wait. Just hold on. Just a little bit longer. We’re almost there….