Crystal ball gazing

Roundtable: Signing the next Seattle Mariner

Despite the near-total abandonment of this space, against the advice of our physicians and pleas of our significant others, the Dome and Bedlam Brain Trust continues to follow the Seattle Mariners Baseball Group with a level of interest. As the MLB and MLBPA sit down to the bargaining table in earnest this week, allowing for cautious optimism that baseball may in fact happen in 2022, members of the site thought it would be fun to advocate for the Mariners next kidnapping victim free agent acquisition. Remember, if you disagree with our opinion, it’s because you’re wrong! We write on a blog, which means we know a lot. Check and mate.

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Zack Greinke, SP

BP just released the first edition of its PECOTA projections, and the worst news wasn’t a projection at all, but the playing time estimate for the Mariners rotation. If the season were to start today, the guess is that a combined 28 starts will go to 2019’s favorite prospect tandem, Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn. Mariners fans do not deserve to watch those two start a fifth of the team’s games in 2022. Sheffield and Dunn themselves probably don’t deserve to be put through that. 

Of all teams, the Mariners should appreciate the concept of a pitching floor: At the deadline they scooped up baseball’s equivalent of the roaring fireplace channel, Tyler Anderson, to literally show up once or twice a week and be as forgettable as possible in the background. And it worked! While teams like the Padres and Phillies turned bullpen days into bullpen weeks, the M’s were able to keep their own relievers fresh. 

Greinke is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s no longer a star, nor will he need to be paid like one. He doesn’t clog either the budget or the pipeline. He is a guy who knows how to pitch, and probably has just enough left in the tank to cover while Matt Brash and George Kirby acclimate. And most importantly, he makes the Mariners a million times more fun to root for and write about. —Patrick Dubuque

Carlos Correa, SS/3B

Fun fact: Carlos Correa is three months older than J.P. Crawford. Now, it may seem extremely obvious that the Mariners should sign the best available free agent – there is almost no team that can’t find a place for Correa – but seriously, the Mariners REALLY should. Third base looks like an organizational hole, unless Noelvi Marte can move there and provide MLB value soon. I don’t think the Mariners have any intention of moving J.P. off of SS, as his value would hit a precipitous drop, so, why Correa?

Correa is hitting his prime years, and yes, you’ll have to spend a ton of money to get him here. However, he represents an extremely rare opportunity to lock down probably six-ish years of prime production out of a legitimate top-tier talent. If you can get him to move to third base, he has a lot of gas left in the proverbial tank without knocking too much value off. If the Mariners are serious about contending in this window, with the amount of payroll flexibility they currently enjoy, snatching Correa from the perennial ALCS-favorite Astros is something they must do. —David Skiba

Kyle Schwarber LF/1B/DH

Seattle was a bottom-10 offense in 2021 by any relevant metric, and the team’s 90-win total was the greatest Pythagorean record overperformance of all-time. They were scrappy, full of heart, and often fun as hell, but the 2021 Mariners weren’t a particularly good baseball team, and they were especially not good at hitting.

Enter Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber posted a .266/.374/.554 triple slash with 32 dingers in only 113 games for the Nationals and Red Sox last season, resulting in a career best 145 wRC+. At 29 years old he’s still in the midst of his prime and would instantly become the best–or at least the most proven–bat in the M’s lineup without breaking the bank, a detail that is sure to make noted local cheapskate/assclown John Stanton happy. 

Schwarber’s ability to adequately play both left field and first base would also provide the Mariners with some much needed depth and flexibility across the roster, which you’re gonna want if Ty France turns back into a pumpkin, or Julio comes up and discovers that MLB is like really hard, or Mitch Haniger loses another testicle. If you’re the kind of sucker who believes in best-case scenarios for literally the Seattle Mariners then, in a timeline where none of those events occur, they might actually get stuck with a roster full of good players and make the playoffs for the first time since I was nine years old. That’s what we in the science biz call a “win-win,” baby. It’s a free agent signing that’s a guaranteed [pantomiming a bat swing, staring directly into the camera] slam dunk. – Matt Eitner

Freddie Freeman, 1B

As you well know, the Mariners have made the playoffs four times in their four-decades-plus of existence. What was a common denominator? Stellar production at 1B. In the Mariners’ four playoff seasons, they averaged nearly 4 fWAR from their primary first basemen. I was as pleasantly surprised as anyone by Ty France’s 2021, but if you want to break the longest playoff drought in pro sports, you can’t rest on your laurels. ZiPS projects France for 3.1 fWAR – good, but not good enough. Enter Freddie Freeman, owner of a 4.4 fWAR average since his breakthrough season in 2013. Adding Freeman allows Ty France to move to DH full time (another thing the M’s had during their four playoff seasons? A good full-time DH). Seems like a foolproof plan to me.

Unless you just want to maximize fun, in which case, bring back Daniel Vogelbach. If they always get better when they leave (and Vogdor, despite his flair for the dramatic in Milwaukee, did not get better), then let’s see what happens when they come back. —Dan Gomez

Carlos Rodón, SP

Go back up and re-read the section that Patrick wrote. He does a wonderful job highlighting Seattle’s need in the starting pitching department. Except instead of slotting in a soft-tossing, 38-year-old at the sunset of his career into the bottom of their rotation, picture the Mariners adding a dude with arguably the highest ceiling among any of this year’s FA starting pitchers at the top of their rotation. Carlos Rodón, come on down!

Given the arm fatigue/injury concerns, this signing could be fairly risky. But the Mariners are in the perfect position to assume that risk. They’re a win-now/soon team with a ton of payroll space that could absolutely absorb the effects of a “lost” season from Rodón. Even with their roster additions before the lockout, Seattle’s MLB payroll was laughably low (projected to be ~$87M — they can still spend well over $100M on the 26-man before bumping up against 2021’s Competitive Balance Tax threshold). Additionally, with Kirby/Brash waiting in the wings, they could try and revisit a six-man rotation in 2022 or use the occasional spot start from a youngster to help maximize Rodón’s effectiveness and assuage durability concerns. Also, the estimated length of a contract for Rodón (3-4 years) lines up nicely with their current contention window. So many reasons to say yes.

And if you were a fan of the Robbie Ray signing (and you probably should be — he has a good chance of being Very Fun), then there’s a bunch of similar reasons to root for the 2022 version of Rodón to don northwest green. Why bring on just one hard-throwing lefty with a history of inconsistency who is coming off a great season when you can bring on two? If the Mariners have the coaching staff and resources necessary to help Ray find success (and clearly they think they do), they should be in pretty good shape to help Rodón, too.

Even if Gilbert avoids a sophomore slump, Marco bounces back a ton, Flexen doesn’t regress too much, and Ray lives up to expectations (the likelihood of all four of these things happening seems fairly low), the Mariners still need to add another quality arm to their rotation. And if you need to add another arm, why not shoot for the stars? Let’s (finally) put this playoff drought to an end. —Andrew Rice

Marcus Semien – 2B

Marcus Stroman – SP

Mark Canha – OF

Kevin Gausman – SP

Starling Marte – OF

Michael Conforto – OF

The MLB lockout has lasted for approximately one and a half bronze ages so it is easy to forget that, way back in the fall of 2021, the Mariners were connected to practically every free agent out there. The combination of a roster and a payroll similarly devoid of substance allowed the team and its fans to dream of adding practically any available player, for any amount of money. This made the actual process of the abbreviated free agent shopping period a very particular and newly-fresh hell for Mariner fans, as ideal player after ideal player was snapped up by other baseball teams, seemingly unaware that the Mariners had already called dibs on, for once, “getting good”.

The instinct, once the sport’s labor issues are resolved, will be to demand the team immediately and swiftly land the biggest fish remaining in the sea, AKA Trevor Story and/or Kris Bryant. The problem is, while each of these players would look perfectly fine in Northwest Green, the red flags sticking out of them will clash horribly. Story didn’t hit last year and his arm may not work, while the peak of Bryant’s defensive utility is in the past, albeit not as far in said past as his elite offensive production. I won’t complain if the team signs one or both, but understand it if Jerry Dipoto is hesitant to hand out $150 million+ to each of them.

Enter Michael Conforto, who ticks a magical number of boxes for the team. His age (29), ability to hit (lifetime 124 wRC+), and down 2021 make him a theoretical bargain, one of Jerry and John’s favorite words. He’s a local product, which will please the hell out of the various aunts and uncles out there, and he plays outfield. Now I know I know all the teenagers that sustain themselves with Baseball Savant sliders and farm rankings will scream about blocking prospects. However blocking prospects is as real as crypto, and the Mariners currently have three or so proven major league position players. Conforto fits the roster beautifully, allows for *cringes* future flexibility, and is a heck of a hitter. Make it happen, Gerard. -Nathan Bishop

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