In 2014, the Seattle Mariners finished one game out of the playoffs. Over the course of any 162-game season, there are countless “what if” moments. This article examines one of them.

The Date: September 24, 2014

The Teams:

Seattle Mariners: Riding the Bullpen of Death(™) to an 83-74 record at this point of the season. After Félix’s worst outing of the year the night before, the M’s are in the middle of a four-game losing streak, but still only three games behind the Oakland A’s and Kansas City Royals for the AL Wild Card. Looking for their first postseason berth since 2001.

Toronto Blue Jays: After a torrid May, the team scuffled and was eliminated from the postseason on September 23. This game is the first of Toronto’s season that contained no playoff implications.

The Players:

Taijuan Walker: Eleventh major league appearance, eighth start, final appearance of a promising season. Absolutely dealing in this game. Only three hits allowed going into the ninth inning, while striking out five and walking no one.

Ryan Goins: Rookie. Hitless in his last seven ABs, hitting .180 coming into the game. The Blue Jays began the season with Maicer Izturis in the middle of a three-year contract starting at second base. Izturis lasted 11 games before a torn lateral collateral ligament in his left knee, suffered while tripping down the stairs, ended his season. Goins, who had been filling in for an injured José Reyes at shortstop, shifted to second base for a bit before getting sent to Triple A. Goins played nearly 100 games in Buffalo, hitting .298 before being recalled for good on September 1.

Austin Jackson: Acquired from Detroit at the trade deadline. Patrolling center field in this game. Don’t ask Nathan Bishop about him.

Robinson Canó: Superstar second baseman enjoying his first year in Seattle after signing a 10-year, $240 million contract.

Logan Morrison: A first baseman by nature, Morrison is pressed into service in right field for this game, making only his eighth major league appearance in right. Michael Saunders, the typical right fielder, has been battling injuries all year long. After coming off the IL on September 8, he has played in nine out of 18 games. With the travel schedule, the turf in Toronto, and the fact that he played the day before, he has the day off.

Munenori Kawasaki: Ah, our dear old friend Mune. A fan favorite during his time in Seattle, Kawasaki signed with the Blue Jays as a free agent after the 2012 season. Never a strong offensive player, Kawasaki is nevertheless enjoying his strongest season in MLB, pressed into service due to multiple injuries in Toronto’s infield. He is starting at third in this game.

The Build-up:

Bottom of the eighth. Tied at 0-0. The Mariners have only managed two baserunners off Toronto starter Mark Buehrle. This game is flying. We’re only one hour and forty minutes since first pitch. Dalton Pompey tried to bunt his way aboard, and was called safe after swerving to avoid Kendrys Morales’ tag, but Seattle Manager Lloyd McLendon (miss you, Lloyd) challenges the call and has it overturned. This is important, as Blowers notes in the broadcast, “big play … to keep that speed off the basepaths.”

Next batter up is Kawasaki. Hitless in two ABs, and struggling, only one for his last 18. Walker has not given a free pass to anyone all day and is only at 79 pitches. But all of a sudden he can’t find the strike zone and walks Kawasaki on four fastballs. Only the fourth baserunner Walker has allowed all day, but the winning run is aboard.

Anthony Gose, soft hitting center fielder comes to the plate. Walker is clearly distracted by Kawasaki, throwing to first three times before throwing a pitch. Starting catcher Mike Zunino jogs to the mound for a quick conversation. Then Walker steps off. On the first pitch (finally), Kawasaki dekes a run, but holds up. The pitch is high and Zunino pops up. At this point, all focus is on the runner. Yet Walker K’s Gose on three more pitches, and Kawasaki stays put. Two outs.

Walker begins his duel with Ryan Goins with a pickoff move to keep Kawasaki close. After five more pitches, Goins has run the count full. Kawasaki has had 10 chances to steal second and hasn’t attempted a single time. But with two outs, he doesn’t need to steal anymore. He can run with the pitch.

The Play:

As Walker goes into his windup, Kawasaki takes off in earnest for the first time. The pitch is an 89-mph changeup on the outside half of the plate. The outfield is playing deep, wanting to keep the ball in front of them. Goins gets under the ball and lifts it high into the air towards the Bermuda Triangle between second, center, and right. It’s too high over Canó’s head. Morrison cannot get there in time.

The ball lands four feet in front of Jackson. The ball hits the turf (you know, part of the reason Saunders is not in right field) and bounces 55 feet into the air. Morrison, not a natural outfielder, holds up and lets Jackson field the ball. Jackson’s momentum has carried him past the ball, so he has to back up to grab it, preventing him from stepping into his throw. We don’t see Jackson grab the ball, as the camera cuts to Kawasaki rounding third (only there because of the running start due to the full count). The ball has bounced so high, both Canó and Morrison are standing still, having had plenty of time to set themselves. Jackson’s throw is comically short, bouncing just inside the baseline, at which point Kawasaki is already crossing the plate. The damage has been done. Blue Jays lead 1-0.

The Aftermath:

Walker recovers nicely to get Reyes to groundout to Canó at second to end the inning. The M’s have the top of the ninth to match the Blue Jays’ one run. Chris Taylor lines the first pitch from Buerhle under Reyes’ glove into left field for a base hit, ending Buerhle’s night. Aaron Sanchez comes on in relief, and James Jones steps in at first base for Taylor. Jones has 27 steals on the year, only having been thrown out once, giving the M’s a good chance to duplicate what the Blue Jays did in the bottom of the eighth. After a 96-mph fastball right down Broadway (get the bat off your shoulder, Jackson!) Jones nearly gets picked off after taking an enormous lead at first (in addition to being an excellent basestealer, Dave Sims mentions on the broadcast that Jones celebrated his 26th birthday during pregame). After running the count to 2-1 on Jackson, including at least one pitch low and away that would’ve nearly guaranteed a stolen base, Jones gets picked off on a beautiful throw by Sanchez. Demoralized, Jackson waves weakly at a 3-2 offering. It’s hard to tell if he got a piece of it or missed completely, but either way, catcher Dioner Navarro can’t hold on. Jackson puts a moderate amount of effort into running to first, but Navarro retrieves the ball and easily throws him out for the second out of the inning. Dustin Ackley, deep in the throes of his bearded-playing-the-outfield-sad-sack era, chops a weak grounder to the left side (at least he didn’t roll over on it to second?) to end the game. Mariners lose 1-0, and finish the season one game behind the Oakland A’s for the second wild-card spot.

The What If:

What if Michael Saunders were in right field for that game? Does he catch that ball? If not, does he, as a right-handed arm, have a better angle to throw than Jackson or Morrison?

What if Austin Jackson did not have his worst season, by far, in MLB in 2014? Does he get a better jump on that ball? Does he not weakly wave his pool noodle of a bat while striking out in the top of the ninth?

What if Brett Lawrie, the Jays’ starting third baseman at the beginning of the season, hadn’t been hurt? He wouldn’t have the speed to score from first. Or what if Steven Tolleson, who played third the day before, had been playing instead?

What if Taijuan Walker hadn’t been so focused on keeping Kawasaki on at first, when he never attempted a steal? Does he execute his pitches better, especially after going 0-2 to Goins?

If any single one of these things is different, where does that leave us now? Do the M’s make the playoffs that year? Does the addition of Nelson Cruz push them over the top in 2015? Does Félix adjust as a pitcher, and is he still a Mariner? Is JackZ still the GM? Instead of the Cubs winning the World Series in 2016, do the M’s breakthrough? Does this mean Clinton wins the election? The Astros fall apart? COVID-19 doesn’t happen? Dustin Ackley turns it around?

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Two roads diverged in a game, and the Mariners – 

The Mariners took the one that is the Most Mariners

And that has made all the difference.