When the Seattle Mariners first committed to rebuilding their roster, timetables were set. Once the 2018 team’s unsustainable run-differential luck collapsed in on itself like a dying star, Jerry Dipoto changed tack in 2019, offloading most of the team’s MLB-level talent in what he then coined a “step-back”. Expensive stars and notable young talent was shipped East to bring in some younger, largely unproven, highly-rated talent. For Seattle fans, it was yet another chance to reset the board, another means of pushing the goal line of a postseason team further down the road. Here is Jerry talking about said plan.
Seems pretty straight forward. The Mariners were essentially resetting. Grabbing talent that was close to MLB-ready and going to have a right go of it in 2020/2021. Fast forward to right now, in the middle of a truncated 2020 season, where the Seattle Mariners are … in the bottom-third in terms of total team fWAR across MLB. There are names in that future core from Jerry’s quote that are now laughable in terms of their future. Mallex, Swanson, DTW, and Fraley, among others, certainly aren’t setting the timetable for a competitive window. Sure, the Mariners do have a top-of-the-line farm, but will that matter if they have little current MLB talent to match it? It’s extremely clear that this team will not be competing in 2021 in any meaningful way. Most likely they won’t in 2022 either. So, let’s be realistic. Let’s look at what the Seattle Mariners need to do to compete in the 2023 season.
First, Some Rules
Before we set out, let’s start with a brief discussion of a series of assumptions I’ll be working from going forward in this article. To begin, I’m going to model a “competing team” off of the average team fWAR from the division winners of the past two MLB seasons. That’s taking the average value of 12 division winners, which, sure, could be more robust, but it’s fine for our purposes. The average division-winning team in 2018-19 accumulated 48 fWAR over the season. Using Baseball Reference’s formula, where Team Wins = WAR + (.294*G), a 48-fWAR team is expected to win 95 games. The lowest fWAR total to win a division in the last two seasons was St. Louis in 2019 with 37 fWAR. Breaking our sample size and going back five seasons, the average fWAR to win the AL West has been 41. This number is massively deflated by an incredibly lucky 2016 Texas Rangers, so I say we split the middle between 48 and 41 fWAR for the Seattle Mariners to be competitive in 2023. Let’s get the Seattle Mariners to 45 fWAR, or ~93 wins. Let’s assume a competitive team means one that can win the AL West.
Who Remains?
We’ll begin by looking at this future roster based on what I would call the rosiest-possible future. Let’s assume the rebuild goes incredibly well. It’s 2023 and you have 3 fWAR each from Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodríguez, Kyle Lewis, J.P. Crawford, Logan Gilbert, and Emerson Hancock. Just like that, the 2023 Mariners have 18 fWAR. Personally, I would consider these six guys combining to average 3 fWAR a massive success, but I’m sure some will gripe that it’s too conservative. Well, let’s build a team that’s really, really, good then, is what I say. This leaves 27 fWAR and 20 roster spots left to get to our target. Now, let’s take a peek at players currently on the Mariners roster who are likely to be around in 2023.
In 2023, Evan White is on the books for $3M, and I have no idea what value he adds to the team. It’s too early in his career to know where he’s going, but right now, as one of the least-valuable players in all of baseball by fWAR, there’s a non-zero chance the Seattle Mariners will have to find a different direction at first base by 2023. However, there’s no denying that he’s defensively one of the best first basemen alive. If he hits a little, and has enough power, he’s an MLB guy. Let’s be generous, for the moment, and say he’s a league-average (2 WAR) player in 2023.
Seattle is on the hook for $6.5M to Marco Gonzales in 2023, who is actually signed through 2024 (with a team option for ‘25). At that price, if he can maintain consistent production — he’s averaged 3.5 fWAR the past two seasons — he’s a steal, and I’d expect him to be here.
Finally, you have Yusei Kikuchi. The Mariners have the option to activate a four-year, $66M contract after the 2021 season that would extend through the ‘25 season. ZIPS has Kikuchi as just below league average in ‘21 and ‘22, which seems fair. However, he’s gained three ticks on his fastball, and is throwing 95 mph from the left side. I earnestly don’t know if Yusei is still here in 2023, but, hell, let’s say he is. Yusei and Marco will both be on the wrong side of 30 in 2023, so we’ll have to hope they can extend their peak years a little further than some. There is, however, a non-zero chance a guy like Justus Sheffield takes Yusei’s “place” in the rotation. Especially if Seattle manages to land a legitimate ace by 2023. Purely from a dollars standpoint, the front office may decide that cutting ties with Yusei is in their best interest. Sheffield will be in his second year of arbitration in 2023.
Speculating on the bullpen in 2023 using specific names is incredibly fruitless. I’m going to model the 2023 bullpen (bullishly) off of the relatively highly talented backends of ‘16 and ‘18, which accumulated ~4 fWAR over a season. That’s eight roster spots taken for a good bullpen, on top of the six from the rebuild going so well, and another three roster spots for guys the team either has an option for or has already committed money toward for 2023. The Mariners have ten roster spots remaining and a team fWAR of ~27. Their 2019 team managed just over 22 fWAR in a full season. This is a great start, right? Maybe!
Let’s ask the important question though, now. The Seattle Mariners are going to have to spend, and spend heavily, to top up this team’s core, even in this relatively rosey future. So, how are the Seattle Mariners going to go get ~20 fWAR over the next three offseasons? Let’s save that for part two.
